Analisis Sentimen X: Kegagalan Timnas ke Piala Dunia 2026 dengan Naive Bayes

Abstract

The performance of the Indonesian National Team (Timnas) in the 2026 World Cup qualifications has triggered massive and diverse responses on social media, particularly on platform X. This study aims to identify and classify public sentiment regarding Timnas Indonesia's performance into positive, negative, and neutral categories using a data mining approach. Text data was processed through pre-processing stages, term weighting using TF-IDF, and the application of the Synthetic Minority Over-sampling Technique (SMOTE) to address significant class distribution imbalance. The classification algorithm employed was Multinomial Naïve Bayes. Model performance evaluation was conducted by comparing two training-testing data split scenarios: 90:10 and 80:20 ratios. The results indicate that public opinion is dominated by negative sentiment at 73.2%, reflecting public disappointment. In terms of model performance, the 90:10 ratio scenario yielded the best accuracy of 80%, outperforming the 80:20 ratio which recorded an accuracy of 75%. These findings demonstrate that combining Multinomial Naïve Bayes with the SMOTE technique is effective in handling imbalanced text data and is capable of accurately mapping public perception.