Analisis Prediktif Putusan Perdata Berbasis Machine learning di Indonesia

Authors

  • Florentino Sikky Universitas Nusa Cendana, Kupang, Nusa Tenggara Timur
  • Valentino Mengge Universitas Nusa Cendana, Kupang, Nusa Tenggara Timur

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.51903/zqn0g438

Keywords:

Machine Learning, Predictive Justice, Civil Court Decisions

Abstract

The rapid advancement of artificial intelligence, particularly machine learning (ML), has opened new opportunities in the legal domain, especially in addressing the long-standing issue of inconsistency in civil court decisions in Indonesia. This study aims to develop and evaluate predictive models of civil case outcomes using various ML approaches, including Logistic Regression, Support Vector Machine, Random Forest, XGBoost, and IndoBERT. A dataset of 199,000 published civil court decisions was collected, pre-processed, and annotated into three categories: granted, rejected, and partially granted. The experimental results demonstrate that IndoBERT achieved the best performance with an accuracy of 83.5% and an F1-macro score of 81.7%, outperforming classical models. Feature analysis indicated that contractual terms, evidence, and core legal reasoning were the most influential predictors. These findings highlight the potential of ML to enhance consistency, transparency, and predictability in the Indonesian judiciary, while also raising important considerations regarding ethics, bias, and interpretability. The study contributes to both the theoretical discourse on legal analytics and the practical implementation of AI in judicial reform.

References

Al-Surmi, A., Bashiri, M., & Koliousis, I. (2022). AI Based Decision Making: Combining Strategies to Improve Operational Performance. International Journal of Production Research, 60(14), 4464–4486. https://doi.org/10.1080/00207543.2021.1966540

Alcántara Francia, O. A., Nunez-del-Prado, M., & Alatrista-Salas, H. (2022). Survey of Text Mining Techniques Applied to Judicial Decisions Prediction. Applied Sciences, 12(20), 10200. https://doi.org/10.3390/app122010200

Aldoseri, A., Al-Khalifa, K. N., & Hamouda, A. M. (2024). AI-Powered Innovation in Digital Transformation: Key Pillars and Industry Impact. Sustainability, 16(5), 1790. https://doi.org/10.3390/su16051790

Cahyadini, A., Hutagalung, J. I. G., & Muttaqin, Z. (2023). The Urgency of Reforming Indonesia’s Tax Law in the Face of Economic Digitalization. Cogent Social Sciences, 9(2), 2285242. https://doi.org/10.1080/23311886.2023.2285242

Delle Foglie, A., & Keshminder, J. S. (2024). Challenges and Opportunities of SRI Sukuk toward Financial System Sustainability: A Bibliometric and Systematic Literature Review. International Journal of Emerging Markets, 19(10), 3202–3225. https://doi.org/10.1108/ijoem-04-2022-0601

Durguti, E., Arifi, E., Gashi, E., & Spahiu, M. (2023). Anti-Money Laundering Regulations’ Effectiveness in Ensuring Banking Sector Stability: Evidence of Western Balkan. Cogent Economics and Finance, 11(1), 2167356. https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2023.2167356

Eed, M., Alhussan, A. A., Qenawy, A. S. T., Osman, A. M., Elshewey, A. M., & Arnous, R. (2025). Potato Consumption Forecasting Based on a Hybrid Stacked Deep Learning Model. Potato Research, 68(1), 809–833. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11540-024-09764-7

Faisal, Yanto, A., Rahayu, D. P., Haryadi, D., Darmawan, A., & Manik, J. D. N. (2024). Genuine Paradigm of Criminal Justice: Rethinking Penal Reform within Indonesia New Criminal Code. Cogent Social Sciences, 10(1), 2301634. https://doi.org/10.1080/23311886.2023.2301634

Gandall, K., Haley, C., Chhouk, J., Knight, L., Wang, A., & DeMarco, B. (2023). Predicting Precedent: A Psycholinguistic Artificial Intelligence in the Supreme Court. Case Western Reserve Journal of Law, Technology & the Internet, 14(2), 220–245. https://scholarlycommons.law.case.edu/jolti/vol14/iss2/3

I Walia, N. N. (2024). Implications of Digitalization and AI in the Justice System: A Glance at the Socio-legal Angle. Law and World, 10(3), 154–177. https://doi.org/10.36475/10.3.14

Jatna, R. N., Manthovani, R., & Hasbullah, H. (2024). The Role of Disruptive Artificial Intelligence Technology in Combating Crime in Indonesia. Beijing Law Review, 15(03), 1668–1711. https://doi.org/10.4236/blr.2024.153097

Khan, H. U., Malik, M. Z., & Nazir, S. (2024). Identifying the AI-based solutions proposed for restricting Money Laundering in Financial Sectors: Systematic Mapping. Applied Artificial Intelligence, 38(1), 2344415. https://doi.org/10.1080/08839514.2024.2344415

Kossay, M., Idris, M. F., Pratiwi, P., & Suwardi. (2024). Efektivitas Mediasi dalam Penyelesaian Sengketa Perdata di Era Digital: Pendekatan Empiris terhadap Sistem Peradilan Indonesia. Perkara: Jurnal Ilmu Hukum dan Politik, 2(4), 541–552. https://doi.org/10.51903/perkara.v2i4.2226

Kuzior, A., Sira, M., & Brożek, P. (2023). Use of Artificial Intelligence in Terms of Open Innovation Process and Management. Sustainability, 15(9), 7205. https://doi.org/10.3390/su15097205

Laksito, J., Idris, M. F., & Waryanto, A. (2024). Hak dan Kewajiban Negara dalam Mengatasi Kejahatan Lintas Batas di Era Digital: Pendekatan Analisis Normatif. Hakim: Jurnal Ilmu Hukum Dan Sosial, 2(4), 774–790. https://doi.org/10.51903/hakim.v2i4.2154

Losari, J. J. (2024). Geography Has Little Impact: A Comparative Study on the Role of Judges in Singapore and Indonesia in the Taking of Evidence in Civil Proceedings. Asia Pacific Law Review, 32(1), 190–212. https://doi.org/10.1080/10192557.2023.2274635

Mahkamah Agung Republik Indonesia. (2023). Laporan Tahunan Mahkamah Agung Republik Indonesia tahun 2022. Mahkamah Agung RI. https://www.mahkamahagung.go.id/id/summary-laporan-tahunan-mahkamah-agung-ri

Manik, L. P., Akbar, Z., Yaman, A., & Indrawati, A. (2022). Indonesian Scientists’ Behavior Relative to Research Data Governance in Preventing WMD-Applicable Technology Transfer. Publications, 10(4), 50. https://doi.org/10.3390/publications10040050

Muhammad Romli Shofwan. (2023). Advocacy of Civil Issues and Strengthening Legal Literacy for Religious Extension Workers through Preventive and Conflict Resolutions Approach. NUSANTARA: Journal of Law Studies, 2(2), 99–111. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17388586

Mühlhoff, R., & Ruschemeier, H. (2024). Predictive Analytics and the Collective Dimensions of Data Protection. Law, Innovation and Technology, 16(1), 261–292. https://doi.org/10.1080/17579961.2024.2313794

Palaniappan, K., Lin, E. Y. T., Vogel, S., & Lim, J. C. W. (2024). Gaps in the Global Regulatory Frameworks for the Use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in the Healthcare Services Sector and Key Recommendations. Healthcare, 12(17), 562. https://doi.org/10.3390/healthcare12171730

Papagianneas, S., & Junius, N. (2023). Fairness and Justice through Automation in China’s Smart Courts. Computer Law and Security Review, 51, 105897. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.clsr.2023.105897

Putra, R. K., Idris, M. F., & Widhiati, G. (2024). Perlindungan Data Pribadi dalam Era Big Data: Implikasi Hukum di Indonesia. Jaksa: Jurnal Kajian Ilmu Hukum Dan Politik, 2(4), 31–44. https://doi.org/10.51903/jaksa.v2i4.2260

Schepers, I., Medvedeva, M., Bruijn, M., Wieling, M., & Vols, M. (2024). Predicting Citations in Dutch Case Law with Natural Language Processing. Artificial Intelligence and Law, 32(3), 807–837. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10506-023-09368-5

Schmitt, M. (2023). Automated machine learning: AI-Driven Decision Making in Business Analytics. Intelligent Systems with Applications, 18, 200188. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iswa.2023.200188

Secundo, G., Spilotro, C., Gast, J., & Corvello, V. (2024). The Transformative Power of Artificial Intelligence within Innovation Ecosystems: A Review and a Conceptual Framework. Review of Managerial Science, 19(9), 2697-2728. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11846-024-00828-z

Sihombing, B. F. (2024). Indonesian Law: Development and Renewal. Beijing Law Review, 15(01), 1–34. https://doi.org/10.4236/blr.2024.151001

Sistyawan, D. J., Saraswati, R., Lita, T. A. L. W., Jayawibawa, M., & Aris, M. S. (2024). The Development of Positivism’S Legal Theory: From Bentham To Hart. Petita: Jurnal Kajian Ilmu Hukum Dan Syariah, 9(2), 777–801. https://doi.org/10.22373/petita.v9i1.402

Turisno, B. E., Natalis, A., Asy’Arie, M. A. H. Al, & Anggayasti, U. H. (2025). Beyond Textual Reform: A Semiotic and Feminist Critique of Indonesian Civil Code. International Journal for the Semiotics of Law-Revue internationale de Sémiotique juridique, 1-31. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11196-025-10314-8

Undang-Undang Republik Indonesia. (2008). Undang-Undang Republik Indonesia Nomor 11 Tahun 2008 tentang Informasi dan Transaksi Elektronik sebagaimana telah diubah terakhir dengan Undang-Undang Nomor 19 Tahun 2016. https://berkas.dpr.go.id/jdih/document/uu/uu_2008_11.pdf

Undang-Undang Republik Indonesia. (1986). Undang-Undang Republik Indonesia Nomor 2 Tahun 1986 tentang Peradilan Umum sebagaimana telah diubah terakhir dengan Undang-Undang Nomor 49 Tahun 2009. https://peraturan.bpk.go.id/Home/Details/46771/uu-no-2-tahun-1986

Undang-Undang Republik Indonesia. (2022). Undang-Undang Republik Indonesia Nomor 27 Tahun 2022 tentang Perlindungan Data Pribadi. https://peraturan.bpk.go.id/details/229798/uu-no-27-tahun-2022

Undang-Undang Republik Indonesia. (2009). Undang-Undang Republik Indonesia Nomor 48 Tahun 2009 tentang Kekuasaan Kehakiman. https://peraturan.bpk.go.id/Home/Details/38779/uu-no-48-tahun-2009

Walia, I., & Nautiyal, N. S. (2024). Artificial Intelligence and Legal Practice: Jurisprudential Foundations for Analyzing Legal Text and Predicting Outcomes. Lecture Notes in Electrical Engineering, 1258, 57–70. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-97-7356-5_6

Zeleznikow, J. (2023). The benefits and Dangers of Using Machine Learning to Support Making Legal Predictions. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Data Mining and Knowledge Discovery, 13(4), e1505. https://doi.org/10.1002/widm.1505

Zhang, C., & Meng, Y. (2025). Bridging the Divide: Technical Research and Application on Legal Judgment Prediction. Artificial Intelligence and Law, 1-32. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10506-025-09473-7

Zong, Z., & Guan, Y. (2024). AI-Driven Intelligent Data Analytics and Predictive Analysis in Industry 4.0: Transforming Knowledge, Innovation, and Efficiency. Journal of the Knowledge Economy, 16(1), 864-903. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13132-024-02001-z

Downloads

Published

2025-12-30

How to Cite

Analisis Prediktif Putusan Perdata Berbasis Machine learning di Indonesia. (2025). Hakim: Jurnal Ilmu Hukum Dan Sosial, 3(4), 1456-1470. https://doi.org/10.51903/zqn0g438